Leawood, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

003
FXUS63 KEAX 031113
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
513 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After a cold start Tuesday morning, a warming trend will occur
through Wednesday.

- Windy conditions on Wednesday with a strong cold front moving
through Wednesday evening.

- Much colder Thursday with another warming trend through
  Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Subjective surface analysis as of 08Z shows a strong high pressure
sitting over the area. With dewpoints in the low teens and light
winds, temperatures have fallen into the teens early this morning.
That high pressure area will quickly move to our southeast by this
afternoon. That will allow winds to become southerly to
southwesterly, thereby starting to moderate the region as warm
advection increases. Highs today should climb into the 30s to low
40s. Tuesday night/ Wednesday morning, temperatures will be much
warmer than the previous night as we`ll see southwesterly surface
flow continue leading to persistent warm advection. Lows Wednesday
morning are currently forecast to be in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
With the mixing overnight and continued warm advection, these may
need to be increased. At the very least, it looks like a non-diurnal
trend with warming temperatures in the pre-dawn hours. All this
occurs ahead of surface trough or weak cold front that moves through
by Wednesday afternoon. Gusty winds increase behind this boundary
but the more notable/ stronger front will move through Wednesday
evening and overnight. Much colder and drier air will move into the
region behind this front such that by Thursday morning temperatures
fall back into the teens and potentially single digits. The high
pressure center with this cold air mass moves to our east Thursday
night/ Friday morning so we may miss the best potential for
radiational cooling. Non-the-less, lows Friday morning will likely
be in the teens across the area with a small potential for 20s in
our western zones and/or in the urban core of KC.

That high shifts into the Southeast and East Coast late in the week
into the weekend, setting up a persistent warm advection regime
through the middle of the country. In the upper-levels, a split flow
regime develops with potentially a weak Rex block or closed low over
the West. Ensemble clusters start to show this trend in the day 4-5
time frame. But that weakens by day 6-7 into more of an open wave
that gets absorbed into the longer wave trough developing over the
west. Overall, this pattern looks relatively quiet for the local
area and we have generally dry conditions forecast through Monday
next week. The one exception to this may come Monday morning with
models showing a system tracking to our south that brings a small
(<20%) chance of precipitation in our far southeastern zones. We`ll
need to watch for the middle of next week as the ensemble clusters
show that broader troughing moving into the middle of the country.
The deterministic guidance shows a stronger/ more dynamic trough
moving into the Plains with the GFS developing a deep surface low in
the central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 513 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with clear to
mostly clear skies. Light winds initially, will increase from
the south through the day and into the overnight hours. By later
this morning, sustained winds near 10 kts are expected. This
evening, strong winds just above the surface will develop. Some
of this will mix to the surface leading to an increase in
sustained speeds but also wind gusts between 20 and 25 kts. This
may also lead to LLWS shear, especially at more sheltered
terminals in low-lying areas.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB